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Expectancy Calculator

Calculate the expected profit per trade for your system.

Expectancy per Trade

+$65.00

Profit Factor

2.44x

Related calculators

Win rate calculatorKelly criterion calculatorCompound interest calculator

What is trading expectancy?

Expectancy tells you how much you can expect to make (or lose) per trade on average. A positive expectancy means your system is profitable over time. A negative expectancy means you're slowly bleeding money.

The formula

Expectancy = (Win Rate x Average Win) - (Loss Rate x Average Loss). If your system has 55% win rate, $200 avg win, $100 avg loss: (0.55 x $200) - (0.45 x $100) = +$65 per trade.

Profit Factor

Profit Factor = Gross Profits / Gross Losses. Above 1.0 = profitable. Above 2.0 = excellent. Track yours over a meaningful sample size before drawing conclusions.

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