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Kelly Criterion Calculator

Calculate the optimal percentage of your account to risk per trade.

Full Kelly

Maximum growth (high volatility)

40.0%
Half Kelly

Recommended (balanced)

20.0%
Quarter Kelly

Conservative (smooth equity curve)

10.0%

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Trading expectancy calculatorWin rate calculatorPosition size calculator

What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal percentage of your capital to risk on each trade to maximize long-term account growth.

Full Kelly vs Half Kelly

Full Kelly maximizes growth rate but creates large drawdowns. Most professional traders use Half Kelly or Quarter Kelly for a smoother equity curve with less psychological stress.

When it says "don't trade"

If the Kelly percentage is negative, your system has negative expectancy. You should not trade that system at all until you improve the win rate or the win/loss ratio.

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